Warning Signs For Trump As Republican Rebels Defiant
The government shutdown showdown in December 2024 is shaping up to be the first major test of President-elect Donald Trump’s influence over congressional Republicans.
So far, it’s not going well for him.
Just one day after Trump, with significant help from tech billionaire Elon Musk, blocked a bipartisan government funding bill, he made a new demand.
This time, he called for a pared-down funding bill that would also raise the limit on the federal government’s debt to cover its growing deficit.
It was a tough sell for many conservative lawmakers, especially those who’ve long insisted that any debt increase should come with cuts to what they see as excessive government spending.
Trump’s request was also an implicit acknowledgment that his agenda, which focused heavily on tax cuts and increased military spending, probably wouldn’t lead to the deficit reduction many on the right have been hoping for.
On Thursday night, the pared-down bill, which also included a two-year suspension of the debt limit, was put to a vote in the House. Thirty-eight Republicans joined nearly all Democrats in voting against it. This was a major setback for the president-elect, who had strongly backed the bill and warned that he would work to unseat any Republicans who opposed it.
Since that defeat, GOP leaders have been meeting privately, trying to come up with a new strategy.
They could scrap the debt-limit increase, winning over some reluctant Republicans but upsetting Trump in the process. Alternatively, they might renegotiate with the Democrats, who could be hesitant to make any new deals after Trump derailed the first one.
Another option is to try breaking the legislative package into separate votes—on government funding, disaster relief, healthcare fixes, and the debt-limit increase.
Or, they could simply give up and let the government shut down just days before Christmas. That would mean federal workers, including military personnel, might miss paychecks right as holiday bills pile up—a risky move politically.
At this point, even the best-case scenario for Republicans only delays the next shutdown fight by a few months. They’ll have to balance funding the government with pushing through Trump’s legislative priorities on immigration, taxes, and trade, all while dealing with a much narrower House majority.
In the worst-case scenario, all of this could unfold after a prolonged government shutdown, followed by a debt-limit showdown in the summer. That’s when deficit-conscious conservatives may be even less inclined to back the president.
No matter how it plays out, this latest debacle highlights just how fragile the Republican majority in the House really is—and the limits to Donald Trump’s influence.
Republicans are staunchly opposed to compromising with Democrats, but they’ll struggle to secure a majority without them.
While Trump and Elon Musk have the power to block legislation, they don’t necessarily have the ability to rally the support needed to push their own proposals across the finish line.