It’s Republicans’ Turn To Panic About Their Nominee And The Polls- A BIG ONE

It’s Republicans’ Turn To Panic About Their Nominee

As former President Donald Trump finds himself falling behind in polling averages for the first time in months, a wave of panic is starting to ripple through the Republican Party.

Some Republicans, concerned about Trump’s shortcomings as a candidate, are beginning to wish they could orchestrate a switch similar to the one the Democrats managed, replacing President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of their ticket.

As the Democratic convention draws near, there’s a sense of renewed vigor in their campaign, partly thanks to some favorable media coverage.

The Republicans are feeling a bit jittery, though not to the same extent as the Democrats did following Biden’s debate stumble on June 27, which ultimately led to him exiting the race. However, the current Republican unease is reminiscent of the doubts Democrats had about Biden before that debate.

Democratic concerns are mounting over the possibility of Trump, a former president they once considered politically finished, gaining a small but steady lead in key battleground states and potentially winning the popular vote.

For many younger Democratic voters and a significant portion of the political media, witnessing a Republican candidate maintain such a prolonged lead in national polls is unprecedented.

The last instance was George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004, which marked only the second time since 1988 that a Republican candidate won the popular vote. Even then, John Kerry had managed to pull ahead by the Fourth of July weekend.

Many Democrats were frustrated that Trump continued to hold a lead that, while not insurmountable by historical standards, was still concerning. The final RealClearPolitics polling average showed Trump ahead of Biden by 3.1 points. For context, in 1988, George H.W. Bush overcame a 17-point deficit to Michael Dukakis to win the presidency.

Biden’s communication struggles at age 81, which many voters saw as indicative of his overall fitness for office, eroded the remaining confidence Democrats had in his ability to stage any sort of comeback.

Now, Republicans face a similar dilemma. They are stunned by Harris’s surge in the polls just weeks after it seemed they had the 2024 election firmly in their grasp. This shift has made some Trump supporters anxious, reminding them of their longstanding concerns about him. T

hey wonder if Trump can maintain the message discipline needed to close the narrow 0.4 percentage point gap with Harris, as indicated by the RealClearPolitics national average on Monday night, before early voting or November.

It’s easy to picture Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) or former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley being better prepared for the Democrats’ ticket switch than the Trump camp was. Haley often predicted that Harris would replace Biden in some capacity, while DeSantis has been more focused on his anti-Harris messaging since the president stepped down.

Influential conservative radio talk show host Erick Erickson posed a crucial question: “For those Republicans who want to be as tough as the Democrats, is it time to consider ditching Donald Trump for a candidate who can win?” He ultimately concluded that the answer was no.

Unlike Biden, Trump is already his party’s nominee. He secured that nomination by defeating DeSantis and Haley, not Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and Marianne Williamson. Trump has a stronger base than Biden and would likely reject any suggestion to step aside for the party’s sake.

Trump is being advised, perhaps begged, to adapt his “stump speech to define Vice President Harris as liberal and weak, advisers tell us. And praying he’ll stop the recidivistic pull to simply improvise haphazardly,” Axios reported.

Yet even at the height of Trump’s message discipline, when he refrained from doing anything to overshadow Biden’s implosion, the former president’s rally speeches and Truth Social posts were replete with wild material.

A campaign predicated on Trump never leveling personal insults, improvising at live events, or venting on social media for 90-odd days was never in the cards.

Luckily, branding Harris and Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) was always going to be a full-party project not wholly dependent on the nominee’s stump speech. 

The Trump campaign may already be moving in that direction with a return to X with tighter messaging, a bigger messaging role for running mate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), and a battleground state advertising blitzkrieg. 

Republicans don’t have the same options Democrats did when it comes to dealing with their concerns about the top of the ticket. All they can really do is avoid making their renewed fears of losing a self-fulfilling prophecy.