Can Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump?
Vice President Kamala Harris is now vying for the White House alongside her running mate, Tim Walz, after stepping in to replace President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket just a few months before Election Day.
The big question on everyone’s mind is: How will Harris fare against Donald Trump and his vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, this November?
Although recent polls haven’t fully factored in how voters might react to Walz as the Democratic VP candidate, Harris currently holds a 2.8-point lead over Trump in the latest national poll averages, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Republicans are attempting to downplay Harris’s growing lead as a honeymoon phase, but it’s clear that the Democratic candidate has only grown her momentum since entering the presidential race.
The latest poll (12 August) from Morning Consult of 11,778 registered voters shows a 3-point lead for Harris; and Harris has not trailed behind Trump in a single of the pollster’s surveys since the matchup.
On average, Harris has been slightly ahead of Trump in national polls, but the race remains close, with significant variation.
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In the seven battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the polls are more unpredictable, and voters still seem undecided.
A large portion of the latest New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted while Walz campaigned with Harris, showing the vice president with a four-point lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This marks a notable shift from Biden’s previous performance in these swing states.
However, a YouGov/CBS poll from the previous week (up to August 2) indicated that neither Trump nor Harris had a significant lead in any of the battleground states, with both candidates in a tight race.
In both Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has a three-point lead over Harris in the YouGov polls. Republican candidates have won in both states in every election since 2000, save for one.
Demographics
Trump’s core support base includes male voters, those aged 45-64, and white voters without a college education. However, within the latter group, his grip seems to have weakened in comparison to Harris, especially when matched against Biden.
Harris garners strong support from young voters, female voters, and Black voters, boasting a +68 point lead among the latter group.
Despite Harris making notable strides in both national and battleground polls, her campaign faces the ongoing challenge of a “personality gap.”
A previous NYT/Siena poll revealed that while Harris scored higher than Trump on attributes like intelligence, presidential temperament, and empathy, respondents still overwhelmingly perceived Trump as a stronger leader.
As Harris-Walz campaigned in Michigan, a Redfield and Wilton/Telegraph poll revealed an intriguing dynamic. It indicated that battleground voters generally agree more with Democratic policy stances on key issues such as the economy and policing. However, these same voters expressed a greater level of trust in Trump over Harris regarding those issues.
As Harris continues to solidify her standing as the Democratic presidential candidate, the disparity between party alignment and candidate preference may diminish. Trump has had nearly eight years to communicate his policy positions to the electorate, giving him a head start in earning their trust.
Vice presidential polling
Given the unprecedented turmoil in the presidential race this summer, it’s clear that a lot can change between the current polls and the November ballots.
While it’s too early for the polls to show how voters feel about Walz as a vice-presidential pick, JD Vance’s selection as Trump’s running mate has already proven to be divisive.
A poll conducted in late July revealed that Vance has the lowest approval rating of any vice-presidential nominee in history. Democrats are strongly opposed to the choice, while Republicans are divided. A third of non-MAGA Republicans are still unsure if the Hillbilly Elegy author is a good pick for Trump’s running mate.
In contrast, previous polls show that Walz has a strong track record when it comes to approval ratings and benefits from a lengthy political career. However, he is not as well-known to the national electorate compared to other VP hopefuls.
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