Can Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump
Vice President Kamala Harris has officially stepped into the race for the White House, joining forces with running mate Tim Walz after stepping in to replace President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket. This surprising shift comes just a few months before Election Day, signaling a major shake-up in the political landscape.
Last week, Harris accepted the Democratic nomination, solidifying her position as the party’s new standard-bearer.
In another unexpected turn, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on Friday that he is suspending his presidential campaign, throwing his support behind Donald Trump as the election draws near.
Kennedy’s endorsement might provide a boost to the former president’s slipping national support, but it’s still uncertain how independent voters will ultimately respond.
As for Harris, how will she stack up against Trump and his vice-presidential choice, JD Vance, in the upcoming November election?
According to the latest polling averages from FiveThirtyEight, Harris currently holds a 3.4-point lead over Trump. While Harris has consistently maintained a slight edge in national polls, the race is still close, especially with varying results in key swing states.
Harris has not yet seen any positive boost from this week’s DNC, according to the latest national poll undertaken from August 18 to 22 by Outward Intelligence.
This poll still shows Harris far ahead with a +6 point lead over Trump, at 49.5 percent of the vote. However, there is no change from the same poll last week.
In a direct matchup between Trump and Harris, the data indicates that while both candidates would experience an increase in support, Trump would narrow the gap, bringing the race to a close 48 percent for him against Harris’s 52 percent.
The impact of Kennedy’s exit on the Trump-Harris polling numbers is still uncertain. However, an analysis by The Independent highlights that RFK Jr. holds stronger support in states like New Mexico, which could potentially free up a portion of the younger electorate.
Independents
A recent Morning Consult megapoll, surveying 11,501 registered voters, indicates that independent voters are showing a growing preference for Harris. However, the opinions within this unpredictable voter group have varied significantly across different polls.
Securing the support of independent voters will be essential for both Harris and Trump to gain an edge in the upcoming election. This group, known for its unpredictability, appears to be the most inclined to support Kennedy, with 1 in 10 independents expressing a preference for a third-party candidate.
Demographics
A CBS/YouGov poll conducted up until August 16 reveals that Kamala Harris holds a narrow 3-point lead over Donald Trump, highlighting a significant gender divide between the two candidates. The poll indicates that men tend to favor Trump, while women are more likely to support Harris.
Trump’s core base remains strong among male voters, those aged 45-64, and white voters without a college degree. However, Trump seems to have lost some ground in that last group compared to his previous standing against Joe Biden.
Harris performs particularly well with younger voters, women, and Black voters, holding a commanding +65 point advantage among the latter group.
While Harris, like Biden, usually leads among white college-educated voters, the latest CBS poll shows her margin over Trump in this demographic has shrunk to just +5 points, a significant drop from the 20+ point lead she enjoyed in earlier polls.
Fighting in the battlegrounds
In the critical battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the contest between Democratic and Republican campaigns remains intense.
According to research from the Cook Political Report, Kamala Harris currently holds a lead in six of these seven states, with Donald Trump maintaining an edge in Nevada.
Harris’s strongest advantage is in Arizona, a state where Joe Biden narrowly won by just 0.4 percent in the 2020 election.
This marks a significant shift from May, when polls showed Trump leading in six states and tied in Wisconsin in a hypothetical Trump-Biden matchup.
However, polling in these swing states continues to vary depending on the pollster. For example, a YouGov/CBS poll conducted around the same time (up to August 2) found no clear leader between the candidates in any of these battlegrounds.
Overall, the latest battleground polls suggest that Harris has gained momentum, building on the support left by her predecessor, and is now positioned to lead Trump in several key states.
What do voters think?
A poll from Emerson College (August 12-14) shows that Kamala Harris is the only candidate of whom voters have an overall favorable opinion, at +2 percent.
This is significantly more positive than both Trump and his running mate Vance, who have a net -10 unfavorable rating, according to the poll of 1,000 US likely voters.
For live updates on the US presidential election, click here.
Meanwhile, VP pick Walz has an overall neutral favorability rating, with 39 percent of voters holding a favorable view and 39 percent holding an unfavorable view.
Interestingly, one in five voters (22 percent) said they had never heard of Walz, a week after his selection. For JD Vance the number was lower, at 12 percent.
When asked how much they approve of how incumbent Joe Biden is doing as president, voters showed net disapproval of -14 percent.
The Independent is the world’s most free-thinking news brand, providing global news, commentary and analysis for the independently-minded. We have grown a huge, global readership of independently minded individuals, who value our trusted voice and commitment to positive change. Our mission, making change happen, has never been as important as it is today.