Trump’s Poll Numbers Have Barely Budged A Month After Assassination Attempt
Despite a historic month filled with significant political events, including an assassination attempt on Donald Trump during a live broadcast, the Republican nominee’s poll numbers have remained remarkably stable.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s national polling average has shown little to no change since President Biden withdrew from the race.
As of Tuesday, Trump was averaging 43.3% of the vote, only a slight dip from the 43.5% he held on July 21, the day Biden stepped down and endorsed Kamala Harris.
In the busy three weeks since, Trump’s polling average on FiveThirtyEight has fluctuated between 44.2% and 43.3%—a very tight range of just nine-tenths of a percent.
Republican communications experts who spoke to Newsweek noted that this narrow range indicates most voters have already made up their minds about the former president, and very little can change their opinions. However, they caution that this doesn’t mean he should be counted out.
“There is a significant number of voters who simply don’t like him, particularly the media portrayal of him. But that doesn’t mean he can’t win,” Republican strategist John Feehery told Newsweek.
“I believe that if Republicans can effectively characterize Kamala Harris as a risky choice for running the country, many voters might hold their noses and vote for him, or perhaps choose not to vote at all.”
Although Trump’s polling average has remained relatively stable for weeks, his favorability rating — similar to job approval — has seen a slight but meaningful increase, rising from 41.6% before the assassination attempt to 43.4% as of Monday, according to the 538 average.
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, has experienced an increase in her favorability from 38.3% when Biden dropped out to 41.9% as of Monday.
In a politically divided electorate, these shifts are significant and underscore the narrow margins likely to determine the November outcome.
“The role of President of the United States is not a popularity contest. Given the numerous challenges our country and both political parties face, it’s not surprising that both candidates have lower popularity ratings than what we might be accustomed to,” remarked Aaron Evans from WRS, a Republican consulting firm.
“What truly matters, and what will secure President Trump a victory, are the job approval ratings.”
Feehery noted that Trump’s support likely caps at around 44%, but that could still be enough to secure him the White House.
“I don’t foresee a situation where he becomes extraordinarily popular,” the strategist stated. “He isn’t Ronald Reagan. Nonetheless, I believe he can win because Harris, despite her initial favorable reception, isn’t a particularly strong candidate.”